National League ~ 2013 Predictions

It will be fun to see how the National League teams shake out in the upcoming season. There are a number of compelling stories that will unfold, an opportunity for a team to settle a score with an old foe and a chance to see whether those teams that set out to improve themselves actually did. Here’s my take on the final standings of the clubs in the Senior Circuit: 

National League East Division ~ The Nationals trump all with the Braves ready to challenge should major issues undermine the defending NL East Champions. The Phillies are in the middle. The Mets and Marlins are still rebuilding.

1. Washington Nationals ~ Boy are these guys good. Winners of 98 games last season, the Nats are a combination of young, experienced, talented and ready. After being burned by last years NLDS series loss to the St. Louis Cardinals, this is a team on a mission. They have a chance to be scary good. An already excellent pitching staff that boasts “Miss Universe” Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman got better by signing free agent Raphael Soriano to be the closer.

The primary question on everyone’s minds is just exactly how good can Bryce Harper be? Promoted to the majors last season at the age of 19, he put together an outstanding season that earned him the National League’s Rookie of the Year Award. Even better, he got hot at just the right time, hitting .330 with a .400 OBP and 7 home runs from September 1st to the end of the season. In addition to being a physically gifted player, he is an exceedingly intelligent one who works hard to improve every aspect of his game. Bryce Harper is going to be a mega star, with a sky-high future. I’m already wondering what his candy bar will taste like.

But wait! There’s more! This team isn’t just a one man show. The cast also includes steady third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, short stop Ian Desmond, second baseman Danny Espinosa and dependable Kurt Suzuki at catcher. This team can win 105 games if everything clicks.

2. Atlanta Braves ~ Very good starting pitching combined with a superb bullpen will keep this team from any extended losing streaks. The outfield is very athletic with the Upton brothers and Jason Heyward vacuuming everything in sight. The loss of Chipper Jones through retirement will hurt; he was the team’s best hitter last year. The Braves are a notch below the Nationals. I’m estimating that notch is roughly six games at  the minimum.

3. Philadelphia Phillies ~ This is an aging team hoping it finds magic one last time. Going around the horn, they’ve got Ryan Howard at first (33 years old), Chase Utley at second (34 years old), Jimmy Rollins at shortstop (33 years old) and Michael Young at third base (36 years of age). Roy Halladay (35  years of age) is no longer the power pitcher he once was, and so far his transition to shrewd, wily veteran status is in doubt. To compensate, everyone else is going to have to play like Roy Hobbs. That won’t happen.

4. New York Mets ~ General Manager Sandy Alderson is slowly turning the mess around. I have to like a bottom feeder that brought up rookie pitcher Matt Harvey last season and is poised to bring up another young stud pitcher, Zach Wheeler, and a superb catching prospect, Travis d’Arnoud, early this season. Injuries to Danny Murphy and David Wright will slow the team’s start and undermine Ike Davis by limiting the number of fastballs he’ll get to see. However, this is the year that the Mets will begin to field several Championship caliber players simultaneously, so the future is looking better for them.

5. Miami Marlins ~ Slugger Giancarlo Stanton is surrounded by a young cast of hungry ball players who don’t know that they’re supposed to stink, so fourth place is the limit! However, last place is more likely.

National League Central Division ~ The Reds and Cardinals will compete for the top spot, with the Brewers finishing a notch below. I wish the Pirates would finish above .500 for the first time in decades, but they’ll need another bat in order to do so. The Cubs are rebuilding the right way and aren’t a factor at this time.

1. Cincinnati Reds ~ This is a complete team with one fatal flaw; it retained Manager Dusty Baker. A so-so in game manager with the unerring habit of leaving his pitchers in tight spots one hitter too long, he won’t help matters. Watching Bruce Bochy outmaneuver him during last year’s NLDS was classic. The good news for Cincy fans is that the Reds have so much talent that even Dusty Baker can’t screw it up.  Joey Votto is an elite player in his prime. This may be the season that pitcher Matt Latos shatters any glass ceiling people think is just out of his considerable reach. Young speedster Billy Hamilton, Jr is in the minors, but it won’t be for long.

2. St. Louis Cardinals ~ They always find a way to win, don’t they? This season will be no different for a team that is experienced at overcoming challenges, and let me assure you, there are plenty of them. The left side of the infield is the first problem that comes to mind, with third baseman David Freese nursing a sore back and short stop Rafael Furcal out for the season. The defection of veteran outfielder, first baseman and pinch hitter Lance Berkman to the Rangers will hurt. Pitcher Chris Carpenter’s injured shoulder may signal the end of his terrific career. On the plus side of the ledger, there are prospects aplenty, including several outstanding young arms on hand right now. I’m excited that righty Shelby Miller will take his spot in the rotation at the age of 22.

3. Milwaukee Brewers ~ A potent offense is coupled with average pitching. I’m not convinced about the bullpen although many people say it will be better that last year.  Ryan Braun is the real deal. The team is skewing younger, which is a good thing in the long term. However, this season is the short term, so who knows? The team might go lower.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates ~ The Buccos are getting better, and it is hoped that this will be their first .500+ season since 1992. Andrew McCutchen became a full blown mega star last season and should continue doing everything well for years to come. There is some talent on the way as well, especially a superb pitching prospect in Gerrit Cole, who will start the year in Triple A. It won’t take him long to be promoted to the big club, and trust me, Pirates fans, you are in for a treat. If things click, look for a third place finish and a winning record.

5. Chicago Cubs ~ A slow rebuild is underway, but this will be a long year in Wrigleyville. Matt Garza, the team’s best pitcher, is already injured. However, a friend of mine from the Windy City told me the ballpark food will be better this year, so there’s that.

National League West Division ~ Look for a two-team race here. The class of the universe, otherwise known as the San Francisco Giants, are still the best team in this division. Underestimate them at your peril. The Los Angeles Dodgers are all in and will dance every dance in an attempt to “yankee” their way to a championship. The middle of the road Arizona Diamondbacks have remolded the team to fit Manager Kirk Gibson’s run through the wall personality, losing a bit of their upside in the process. The San Diego Padres won’t be a major factor, although they do have talent on the way. The inept Colorado Rockies  are the division’s “beat ’em up.”

1. San Francisco Giants ~ Meet the model for putting together championship teams. The Giants scout, draft and develop great pitchers. Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong and Madison Bumgarner form an outstanding core, with resurgent veteran Barry Zito not too far behind. How would you like it if your team had a former Cy Young Award Winner who went 15-8 last year as your number four pitcher? Many of the position players, such as last years National League Buster Posey, third baseman Pablo Sandoval and center fielder Angel Pagan, are among the best in the league. The Brandons, Crawford at shortstop and Belt at first base, have solidified their holds on their positions. Belt has developed his power stroke and is hitting the ball hard, so look for his power numbers to go up big time. General Manager Brian Sabean brings in whatever talent is needed to pull ahead during the dog days of summer, and elite Manager Bruce Bochy weaves all the pieces into a winning tapestry. The Giants window of opportunity is now and should easily last another two to three seasons, and maybe longer if minor leaguers Joe Panik and Gary Brown continue to improve. The only downside is Timmy, and if he falters, the Giants will for the first time miss Zach Wheeler, who was dealt away to the New York Mets in the late 2011 for Carlos Beltran. However, the defending World Champions will think of something; they always do.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers ~  I’m sure the management, players and fans would love to settle matters with the Giants, their rivals to the north  If everything works, the utra-rich Dodgers will be a load. However, everything won’t work, just like it didn’t for the 2011 Red Sox or the 2012 Marlins. This team looks a lot like last season’s late-summer collection that thudded its way to a .500 record during August and September. Clayton Kershaw is one of the league’s elite pitchers. The organization signed free agent Zack Grainke, who is solid but will never come near the numbers he posted during his 2006 Cy Young Award winning season (2.16 ERA and 1.073 WHIP). After that the starting pitching get a bit iffy talent wise. The left side of the infield, no great shakes even before Hanley Ramirez broke his hand, now appears questionable. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez has slipped a notch at the plate. The outfield should be solid with Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier from left to right. Raise your hand if you think Don Mattingly is a good manager. I didn’t see any hands go up. Did you?

3. Arizona Diamondbacks ~ This is a relatively well-balanced, better than average team that should land right in the middle of the pack. They’ll play hard and well, but the talent disparity between them and the better teams will be apparent by June 1st, if not sooner. Free agent outfielder Cody Ross brings grit and leadership. Young first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is prone to striking out, but I have to like a guy who in his second season mashed 20 home runs, posted a .360 OBP, hit .286 and successfully stole 18 bases out of 21 attempts. Center fielder Adam Eaton will miss the first six to eight weeks of the season with a left-elbow injury, which will hurt big time.

4. San Diego Padres ~ You have to wonder if last season’s second-half burst of power by third baseman Chase Headley was for real. Once you’ve figured that one out, you can next wonder why a player as talented as Cameron Maybin turned in a .306 OBP last year. Will Carlos Quentin ever get and stay healthy? Who is going to pitch for these guys? I can’t name a single starter. If they somehow bottom out and somehow push the Rockies out of the basement, they might as well bring up some of their top minor league talent.

5. Colorado Rockies ~ Last season the team instituted the practice of taking its starting pitcher out of the game after seventy-five pitches and turning the game over to its bullpen. Enough said.