American League ~ 2013 Predictions

The season is a day or two away and with it comes my annual exercise in futility, the predicted order of finish of the clubs. A lot can change over the next six months, including injuries, call ups of promising rookies, fire sales by those clubs already out of the money, managerial firings and etc, all of them affecting on-field performance. Today’s view is like a balance sheet, a look at an ongoing concern at a frozen moment in time. So with that in mind, here we go with the American League:

American League East Division: This is a division where most of the teams could finish above .500. The Red Sox and Yankees, once perennial power houses are vulnerable, and the other teams in the division know it.

1. Baltimore Orioles ~ The Birds will benefit from last season’s outstanding performance, which I believe was no fluke. There may be a bit of slippage because no team will continue to win all of its one-run games. However, good starting pitching, a deep bullpen and a  balanced attack will win the division and bring the fans back to Camden Yards. Keep an eye on Manny Machado, because you are going to like what you see.

2. Toronto Blue Jays ~ If all of the question marks about this team turn into exclamation points, this team will lead the pack. However, questions abound, and some of them will be answered with a thud. How good will the pitching be? How will R.A. Dickey fare in a division with small ball parks and loaded lineups? Will Josh Johnson ever stay healthy for an entire season? Will Mark Buehrle, a thirty-four year old who has thrown over two-hundred innings for twelve straight season, be anything more than a .500 pitcher?

They will all benefit from what should be a potent attack. It’s that nagging “what should be” that casts a shadow of a doubt on the team’s outcome. Will gifted shortstop Jose Reyes, whose game is so dependent on his legs remaining healthy, stand the rigor of playing half of his games on turf? Is Edwin Encarnacion, who produced 42 home runs and a .280/.557/.941 slash line in 2012, capable of maintaining that performance? Has Jose Bautista peaked? Is his wrist healthy? Will the team find out about the real Mekly Cabrera the hard way?

It all adds up to a compelling roll of the dice, one that could come up all sevens if all pistons are firing or settle into the middle of the pack if not. Taken as a whole, this squad has a lot of talent.

3. Tampa Bay Rays ~  I’ll take the bait. Will Evan Longoria ever play an entire season again? Did they give up too much pitching to get hitting prospect Wil Myers from the Royals? Will pitcher Matt Moore step up to the next level? Is Fernando Rodney going to dazzle the rest of the league like he did last year? One thing is for sure, Manager Joe Maddon will get the most out of the talent on hand, like he always does.

4. Boston Red Sox ~ They shelled out a lot of money for a number of so-so veteran players who join a surviving cast of better younger ones. Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Will Middlebrooks should all contribute solid seasons, and spring training phenom Jackie Bradley, Jr. looks like he’s the real deal. David Ortiz is banged up, which won’t help. The pitching looks spotty. They won 69 games last year, and even if they improve a dozen games, which is a lot to ask, they’re still a .500 club.

5. New York Yankees ~ The bottom drops out due to age, injuries, defections and get this, a sharp eye on the bottom line. Will Derek Jeter ever be the same player he was before last year’s ankle fracture? Will the other veterans hold up over the long slog? It’s going to be a long season in the Bronx.

American League Central Division: Watch out Detroit Tigers, there’s a new kid in town.

1. Detroit Tigers ~ A great pitching staff and a superb attack can too overcome a so-so defense. I’m not too certain about their bullpen, however.

2. Kansas City Royals ~ One of the most intriguing clubs going into the 2013 seasons, the young Royals are ready to move up, big time. Look for a bounce back season from Eric Hosmer. Alex Gordon is about to become a big star. Salvador Perez is a stud catcher. They’re looking for leadership from pitcher James Shields who they got in the Wil Myers trade with the Rays, and believe they will get it. I can’t wait to see these guys move up.

3. Cleveland Indians ~ They improved their attack by signing Nick Swisher and Mark Reynolds. Michael Bourn brings a great glove in the outfield. I’m not so sure about the starting pitching where the team appears a bit shaky. Terry Francona will do a good job managing this crew, but this is a .500 team.

4. Chicago White Sox ~ They stood pat and will be sorry they did.

5. Minnesota Twins ~ Helped themselves in the off season but are still in rebuilding mode.

American League West Division: Pity the poor Houston Astros, the newcomers to the division after half a century in the National League. Their presence explains why, at least in part, the other four teams will add to last season’s victory totals. The top three teams in the division, the Angles, Athletics and Rangers, will engage in a spirited contest for the division’s crown.

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim ~ A potent offense will only get better with the addition of Josh Hamilton, the free-agent outfielder who was signed  in the off season. I expect big things from Albert Pujols and last season’s American League Rookie of the Year Mike Trout, too.

2. Oakland Athletics ~ Last season’s division winner is a complete team who will get production from every player on the team. The other teams underestimate this team at their own peril. Look for a big improvement from second-year outfielder Yoenis Cespedes.

3. Texas Rangers ~  Still a potent club, but no longer the class of the division.

4. Seattle Mariners ~ A pitching fueled team tried to improve the attack in the off season by bringing in the fences and acquiring Kendrys Morales, Michael Morse and Raul Ibanez. The M’s will be better, but they face an uphill climb with three more talented teams blocking their advancement.

5. Houston Astros ~ Talk about an uphill climb! At least the poor Astros have snappy new uniforms. The real problem is that at most the Astros have snappy new uniforms. This team is three seasons away from being a factor, let alone a serious contender.