Carlos Beltran

As I write this it’s 2 am and for some unexplained reason I’m up with energy to burn. Maybe it’s because I have an urgent need to analyze the just completed big trade between the Mets, who sent veteran outfielder Carlos Beltran to the Giants, for blue-chip pitching prospect Zack Wheeler.

I have a laissez-faire approach to most trades, but this one feels like I’ve got a personal stake in it. Maybe it’s because I weighed in on this topic with a couple of very sharp baseball fans two months ago. Another possibility could be that most of my San Francisco friends are Giants fans, and I wish them well. Of course, maybe it’s just me. This trade was consummated at a time when my life is  undergoing significant change. I’ve resigned my position at the condo.  I’ve started this blog and have already developed a small readership. I’m  getting ready to visit New York City for the first time in twenty years. I grew up in the New York Metropolitan area, and even though I’ve lived  most of my adult years in San Francisco, New York has always been “home”  in my heart. My good friend Justine, a lifelong San Francisco Giants fan I  met at the condo who would always listen to my baseball diatribes,  recently moved there to enter a Master’s program at Columbia. I bought  an Ipod, and not only have I learned how to use it (!), I’ve discovered some terrific baseball podcasts as well. My favorite among them is Mets  Musings, an entertaining and informative weekly production whose co-hosts Barry and Gary slowly, almost casually, discuss not  only the happenings of our team, but look at baseball in its entirety as well. It’s at the crossroads of reaching out to Mets Musings and thinking about a  possible Mets trade where I’ll pick up this story line. Here’s a small portion  of an email I sent to Barry and Gary on May 27th:

“If a trade for Jose Reyes is coming, and it’s with us, we should push  for Gary Brown (center fielder at High A San Jose) currently hitting .365.  He was their # 1 pick in last year’s draft. He’s very fast, which we could use  in the outfield at Citi, and could easily play left if need be (not right field  due to his only average arm). We might also look at Zack Wheeler, a  pitcher on the same team. His ERA(4.32) is a bit high, but I like his strike  outs (50) per innings pitched (41.2). I’ve watched Giants General Manager  Brian Sabean for years, and he doesn’t like trading prospects. But the G’s  sure do need some kind of boost to their offense, and we all know we could  use an infusion of developing talent.”

Major League Baseball has set July 31st as a trading deadline between teams. Even though it’s still possible to trade players between teams after that date, it’s complicated, so we’ll just stick with July 31st for now. As the summer unfolds teams are better able to assess whether they have a chance to win enough games to qualify for the playoffs in the fall, or whether this is not they’re year. If a team is contending and thinks it has a chance to make the playoffs as the trading deadline approaches, it becomes a “buyer,” and tries to make a trade to strengthen its chances to win this year. If a team concludes it does not have a chance to make the playoffs, it will either stand pat or become a “seller,” in which case it will look to make a trade that will strengthen it team for next year, or at some further down the line.

For a long time it appeared that the Mets might be buyers. During this period of time many Mets fans feared that our shortstop, Jose Reyes, was the one who was going to be traded. That’s when I sat down to put in my two cents and sent my email to Mets Musings. Even from three thousand miles away I could sense the mixed emotions Mets fans had about this possibility. Some thought it inevitable. Others were arguing passionately against it. “Don’t Trade Reyes” t-shirts began showing up, some even here in San Francisco. Yet Reyes, in the midst of perhaps his best ever season, seemed somehow oblivious to it all and kept producing. Ultimately, for a variety of reasons, the decision was made to keep Reyes in New York. That left Carlos Beltran as the position player most likely to be traded.

Meanwhile, here in San Francisco, the defending World Series Champion Giants were once again having success because of their all-world pitching staff. The were clearly going to win their division and head into the playoffs for the second straight year. But what after that? It didn’t take very long for everyone with a modicum of baseball awareness to realize the Giants needed hitters. In a way it’s unfortunate that this is the case, although it certainly does put the charmed 2010 season, when the Giants had very few injuries to contend with, in a different light. This year there are injuries to key players that truly undermine the teams offense every time the Giants take the field. The team’s best hitter, Catcher Buster Posey, went down with a broken leg after a nasty collision with an opposing player while trying to block home plate. Then second baseman Freddie Sanchez dislocated his right shoulder, thereby robbing the Giants of their second best hitter. Where does this leave the Giants? Out of the sixteen teams in the National League, they rank fourteenth in on-base percentage and walks, and fifteenth in runs scored. Yet they are also in first place in their division. Make no mistake, by acquiring Carlos Beltran, the Giants pretty much cemented their hold on the 2011 National League West crown.

But the San Francisco Giants and their fans have developed a taste for World Championship parades. That’s where Carlos Beltran comes in. Yes they will still play every regular season game as if they were playing for their lives, torturing themselves and their fans by securing victories with the thinnest of margins. Carlos Beltran will certainly help make those margins a little thicker. But this trade is all about October. If you look at the other better teams in the league, some of whom the Giants will most certainly meet in the playoffs, you realize this trade was essential. The Philadelphia Phillies, who lost to the Giants in last year’s National League Championship Series, improved themselves with a number of moves during the off-season. With three days to go until the July 31st deadline, they have time to make a move to strengthen themselves even more. The Atlanta Braves are better, too. Assuming the Giants dispose of the Phillies and Braves in the playoffs once again, it’s on to the World Series where the Red Sox, Yankees or some other very good team will test them. The Giants are going to need all the offense they can get. The Giants are full of surprises, but scoring lots of runs off opposing pitchers as good as Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Jair Jurrjens or CC Sabathia doesn’t seem likely. A proven, quality major league hitter like Carlos Beltran will help not only with his production at the plate but also by easing some of the pressure on some of the team’s other hitters. A strong hitter almost always makes the entire lineup better.

So what’s my take on the trade? Both teams win. The Mets got a great pitching prospect, and if it’s one thing that they’ve already repeatedly demonstrated, the San Francisco Giants know all about excellent pitching. Surrendering Zack Wheeler to the Mets will not hurt the Giants in the short run and will almost certainly help the Mets in a year or two when he’s major league ready. In turn, the Giants got a badly needed hitter who will help now. Perhaps even more importantly, they kept Gary Brown. I don’t hear a lot of Giants fans talking about this, but in its own way this was at least as important as getting Beltran. At this time patrolling center field for the Giants are Andres Torres and Aaron Roward, both 33 years old. Keeping Gary Brown, their 22 years old, center fielder of the future, was huge. He’s currently with the San Jose Giants and should be major league ready by 2013.

So the chances of keeping that smile on my friend’s face just got a lot better. Justine, I hope you are well and happy in New York City. This post is for you.